Introduction : This study was designed to validate the alpha-fetoprotein model for predicting recurrence after liver transplantation in Korean hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

Methods : Patients who underwent liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma at Samsung Medical Center between 2007 and 2015 were included. Recurrence, overall survival, and disease-specific survival of patients divided by both the Milan criteria and the alpha-fetoprotein model were compared using Kaplan-Meier log-rank test. The predictability of the alpha-fetoprotein model compared to the Milan criteria was tested by means of net reclassification improvement analysis applied to patients with a follow-up of at least 2 years.

Results : A total of 400 patients were included in the study. Patients within Milan criteria had 5-year recurrence, and overall survival rates of 20.9% and 76.3% respectively, compared to corresponding rates of 50.3% and 55.7%, respectively, for patients who were beyond Milan criteria. Alpha-fetoprotein model low risk patients had 5-year recurrence and overall survival rates of 21.1% and 76.2%, respectively, compared to corresponding rates of 57.7% and 52.2%, respectively, in high risk patients (P

Conclusions : The alpha-fetoprotein model seems to be a promising tool for liver transplantation candidacy, but further investigation is needed.